This paper examines how conflicts and geopolitical rivalries across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea are becoming increasingly interconnected. It looks beyond individual country crises to trace how tensions in Ethiopia, the war in Sudan, Ethiopia–Eritrea relations, competition over sea access, and wider regional rivalries are beginning to overlap through armed actors, borders, supply routes and external support.

It argues that the region is not yet facing a single regional war, but is moving toward a more interconnected regional conflict system in which escalation in one arena can quickly affect another. The paper maps these overlapping disputes, explores possible escalation and de-escalation pathways, and proposes policy approaches to reduce the risks of a wider regional war.

Authors:

Mohamed Nagi Alassam is a Sudanese political activist and policy researcher and co-founder of the Sudanese Center for Policy Studies (SCPS). His work focuses on Sudanese politics, conflict and regional dynamics in the Horn of Africa.

Mikael Daniel is a pseudonym used by an Ethiopian researcher based in Ethiopia whose work focuses on peacebuilding, political and security developments in Ethiopia and the wider region.