This paper is the result of collaboration between the Sudanese Center for Policy Studies and the Arab Reform Initiative. It aims to analyze the escalation pathways that led to the April 2023 war in Sudan, drawing on Wolfram Lacher’s theory of “escalation processes.”
The paper focuses on the political and economic factors that contributed to the intensification of the conflict, showing how “path dependence” produced a chain of escalating events that made war inevitable. It also highlights the role of political economy, which was not merely an enabling factor but a central driver of the conflict through competition over resources and the exploitation of smuggling networks.
The paper further examines the impact of regional and international factors in complicating and prolonging the conflict, offering an analytical framework to understand the interactions among political, military, and economic forces. In doing so, it seeks to provide an in-depth examination of the dynamics of conflict escalation, contributing to the development of policies that support peace and stability in Sudan.
Authors:
Saleh Mustafa – Researcher in international relations and political science, with interests in security, securitization, and democratic transition.
Osama Hassan – Lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Khartoum.
Mohamed Nagi Alassam – Executive Director of the Sudanese Center for Policy Studies.
